On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks

Daily and weekly seasonalities are always taken into account in day-ahead electricity price forecasting, but the long-term seasonal component has long been believed to add unnecessary complexity, and hence, most studies have ignored it. The recent introduction of the Seasonal Component AutoRegressive (SCAR) modeling framework has changed this viewpoint. However, this framework is based on linear models estimated using ordinary least squares. This paper shows that considering non-linear autoregressive (NARX) neural network-type models with the same inputs as the corresponding SCAR-type models can lead to yet better performances. While individual Seasonal Component Artificial Neural Network (SCANN) models are generally worse than the corresponding SCAR-type structures, we provide empirical evidence that committee machines of SCANN networks can outperform the latter significantly.     

The interactive effects of organizational and leadership career management support on job satisfaction and turnover intention

In the organizational career management literature, scholars have focused on career management policies, with little attention given to practices that can vary within organizations. And despite its recognized importance, research on the role of leaders in the career management process is also scant. In this study, we investigate the effects of career management practices (OCPs) and leadership career support (LCS) on employee attitudes. Grounded on coping theory, we propose that career support received from line managers can be particularly consequential when OCPs are lacking. We analyze the moderating effects of LCS on the relationship between OCPs and both job satisfaction and turnover intention in a sample of employees from a large Brazilian organization, applying multiple regression analyses. Results showed that OCPs and LCS are positively related to job satisfaction and that OCPs are negatively related to turnover intention. In addition, we confirmed that LCS moderates the relationship between OCPs and both job satisfaction and turnover intention. Finally, we observed that the relationship between OCPs and turnover intention is mediated by job satisfaction. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

基于堆垛机S型曲线运动模型的matlab仿真分析

利用matlab仿真软件对堆垛机的三种S型曲线模型进行分析。在仿真的过程中，引进了跃度的概念，利用做功的基本公式推导出电机的输出瞬时功率。最后通过比较三种控制方法，认为变跃度的方式不仅可以解决曲线平滑的问题，还可以降低选型电机的功率大小。     

The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis

This paper uses panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models for euro area member countries to explore the widening of retail bank interest rate spreads that emerged in the course of the global financial crisis. We find that the interest rate pass-through was generally complete on impact before the outbreak of the financial crisis, but became significantly distorted in the period thereafter, which hampered the effectiveness of monetary policy. Empirical evidence suggests that the decrease in the interest rate pass-through can be related to a change in the structural parameters characterizing the economies and a substantial increase in the average size of structural shocks. DSGE model simulations show that an increase in the frictions that banks are subject to can explain the decrease in the retail bank interest rate pass-through.     

中原生态经济区的建设与规划分析

中原生态经济区强调同时实现环境、经济、社会效益,侧重相互合作与整体利益,突出资源的节约共用与可持续发展,是工业系统、交换系统、社会网络、文化氛围的营造以及各种基础设施的物质空间建设,其健康运行需要区域经济发展、综合治理、循环经济发展、生态工业网络的政策支持。     

Residents’ support for red tourism in China: The moderating effect of central government

This study proposes and tests a model that incorporates two competing theories of political trust, institutional trust and cultural trust, to examine community support for “red tourism” development. Using data gathered from residents living in close proximity to Jinggangshan Scenic Area in China, this study examines the influence of authoritarian values, particularly as they relate to level of residents’ power, their level of trust in government, and their effects on support for “red tourism.” Findings suggest that trust in central government moderates the relationship between trust in local government and support. Future studies should utilize the institutional trust framework to assess residents’ trust in the local government and the cultural trust framework to assess trust in the central government.     

Unraveling public support for casino gaming: The case of a casino referendum in Penghu

By integrating the social exchange theory (SET) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB), this study unravels the factors associated with residents’ intention to support casino gaming development in Penghu in future referenda. Residents’ attitudes toward casino gaming development in their community were examined in the SET framework while their intention to support such development was investigated in the TPB framework. Despite that partisan difference did not have a significant interaction with TPB variables, past behavior exerted moderating effects determining residents’ intention to support casino gaming development through two TPB variables: subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. Implications are provided.

Abbreviations: ATTU: attitude; DPP: Democratic Progress Party; ECOI: perceived economic impact; ENVI: perceived environmental impact; INT: intention to support casino gaming development in future referenda; KMT: Kuomingtang; PBC: perceived behavioral control; PPB: perceived personal benefit; SET: social exchange theory; SN: subjective norms; SOCI: perceived social impact; TPB: theory of planned behavior     

Institutions,moral hazard and expected government support of banks

We model the expected support of banks with credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch, taking explicitly into account the capacity and willingness of governments to provide support in case of need, as well as their concerns about moral hazard (i.e., that the expected support may induce banks to assume bigger risks). Our results suggest that moral hazard concerns are relatively weak. In addition, a substantial part of the expected support can be attributed to the quality of a country's institutions. These findings have important implications for the dynamics of banking crises, the value of the ‘fair’ insurance premium banks might be called upon to pay for the expected support, as well as for ways to reduce the resulting negative externalities.     

建筑工程高支模板支架搭设施工工艺要点浅析

对于建筑工程项目来讲,高支模施工技术是应用较为频繁的技术形式,因此必须要结合项目实际情况,加强高支模板支架搭设工作。文章就结合具体工程项目分析建筑工程高支模板支架搭设施工工艺要点。     

基于SVM的房地产财务决策风险预测及敏感性分析

本文以房地产上市公司的财务数据为参考依据,结合相关性分析,筛选并建立影响财务风险的指标体系;利用支持向量机建立财务风险分析预测模型;并使用灰色关联理论对指标进行敏感性分析,从而得到影响财务风险最敏感的指标。